:Product: 20021218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 226
(S28W15) produced two M-class flares today.  The largest was an
M2.4/1n flare that occurred at 18/0642 UTC, a slightly smaller
M1.6/Sf flare occurred at 17/2335 UTC, with several lesser C-class
flares originating from this region today as well.  The magnetic
delta spot configuration remains evident in the intermediate cluster
of spots.  Region 229 (N19E12) did not produce optically correlated
flare activity during the period although the areal spot coverage
has increased and the magnetic gamma characteristics remain intact.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Regions 226 and 229 have the potential of
producing M-class event activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels once the onset of the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream begins, which is expected
to occur on day one of the forecast period.  Day two should see
predominantly unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods
of minor storm levels.  A return to predominantly unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods should occur on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 197
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  195/195/195
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  002/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  020/035-018/020-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/25
Minor storm           35/25/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/05