:Product: 20021219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 226 (S28W28)
produced multiple low level C-class flares.  The largest optically
correlated event was a C2.7/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0035 UTC.
Magnetic analysis of this region depicts a complex delta structure
continuing in the intermediate cluster of penumbral spots.  Region
229 (N19W03) was quiescent through the period.  White-light analysis
shows decay in areal coverage as a weak gamma magnetic structure
remains evident in the central portion of this region's spot complex.
Region 230 (S08E32) has continued to grow and now has a weak gamma
magnetic structure seen in the trailing portion of the region.  This
region was also responsible for minor C-class flare activity early
in the period.  New Region 231 (S25E13) was assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Regions 226, 229, and 230 all are capable of
producing M-class flares.  There is a slight chance of a major flare
occurring in Region 226.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  A
favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole and the resulting high
speed stream are responsible for the elevated conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one of
the forecast period, becoming predominantly unsettled to active
levels on day two and returning to quiet to unsettled conditions by
day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 193
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  195/195/185
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  015/020-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01