:Product: 20021222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
223 (N25W58) produced an M1.1/2f flare at 22/0230 UTC that had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
833 km/sec and a Tenflare.  There was some growth in areal spot
coverage during the period while this region continues to exhibit a
simple magnetic structure.  Regions 226 (S28E67) and 229 (N19W42)
have been in steady decay throughout the period.  Region 226
continues to depict a magnetic delta structure in the main cluster
of intermediate spots. Region 230 (S08W07) underwent little change
today.  The later three regions mentioned were quiescent during the
period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period at middle and high latitudes between 22/1800
and 2100 UTC.  The NASA/ACE instrument detected a weak shock passage
at approximately 22/1300 UTC.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly north since
transient onset.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels through
the forecast period.  Due to a slightly elevated solar wind speed
there may be isolated active periods observed mostly at high
latitudes into day one of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 172
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  170/165/160
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  010/015-006/010-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01