:Product: 20021226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar Activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Today's flare activity consisted of a few low-level C-class
subflares. A backward C-shaped filament erupted off the disk at
about 1805 UTC today. The filament eruption was associated with a
fast, narrow CME off the northeast limb, first seen in the C2 field
of view at 1854 UTC. The estimated CME velocity in C2 was about 715
km/s.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
data seem to indicate the onset of a high speed coronal hole wind
stream around 1600 UTC, with speeds up to about 500 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next two days in response to
the high speed solar wind stream associated with a 30 degree wide
solar coronal hole. Conditions should subside slightly to unsettled
to active levels by the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 127
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec  125/120/115
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  016/020-016/025-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/05