:Product: 20021229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at 28/2314Z
and was likely associated with the eruption of segments of a
filament near N15E40. A faint CME was observed following the
filament disappearance. The remaining segments of this horseshoe
shaped filament continue to be quite active. The large filament near
N25W25 is also quite active. The handful of regions on the sun are
small with simple magnetic structure. New region 239 (S10E37) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. The best chance for a C-class flare is from Region 234
(N18E05).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated -  near 550 km/s, due to a  high speed coronal hole
stream. The high speed stream is declining as the coronal hole
rotates out of a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit once again reached high
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through the next
three days. Isolated active periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 115
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  012/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  008/010-008/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01