:Product: 20021230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  Activity
was limited to several very minor low level B-class flares.  At the
time of this writing there are three regions exhibiting spots in
white light, all of them small and simply structured.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Active
conditions were the result of a favorably positioned coronal hole
that is in it's waning stage.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one due to the elevated solar wind
speed (approximately 500 km/sec).
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 114
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  008/010-005/010-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01