:Product: 20021231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Only a few B-class
subflares were observed. New Region 240 (S06E20) emerged on the disk
today as a small D-type sunspot region. All three spotted regions on
the disk are simple and less than 100 millionths in area.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days, with a slight
chance for some isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 115
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  007/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05