:Product: 20030101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low during the past 24
hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
in geomagnetic activity is expected on the second and third days,
with expected levels being unsettled to slightly active. The
enhanced activity is predicted as a response to effects from a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 115
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  010/010-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/45/35
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/15/10