:Product: 20030102RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Jan 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only one C-class event occurred during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 1306 UTC. SOHO/EIT images suggest that newly assigned Region 242 (S08E61) was the source for the event. New Region 241 (S25W40) was assigned today. Region 239 (S09W17) continues to be the largest group on the disk with an area of 70 millionths. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind density, velocity, and total magnetic field showed a steady increase beginning around 1700 UTC. This may mark the beginning of a corotating interaction associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active over the next two days due to coronal hole effects. A decline to mostly unsettled is expected by the third day. III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jan 118 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 164 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 012/015-012/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/05