:Product: 20030103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Several low level
C-class flares occurred today.  The largest optically correlated
event was a C2.0/Sf flare that occurred at 03/1445 UTC from Region
234 (N19W60) as region underwent steady decay today.  Region 242
(S08E48) produced several B and C-class flares while showing areal
growth of spot complex through the period.  An eruptive prominence
on the west limb (N22W90) occurred at 03/1506 UTC producing a CME
seen on NASA/LASCO imagery that does not appear to be earth
directed.  Regions 243 (S19W34), 244 (S15E58), and 245 (N12E74) were
newly assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  A very slight chance of an isolated low level M-class
flare is possible from Region 242.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled.  Isolated
active to minor storm conditions were observed between 03/1500 to
1800 UTC due to the effects of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels on day
one of the forecast period due to high speed stream coronal hole.
Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions as the geo-effective coronal hole wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 138
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  135/140/145
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  012/015-010/015-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01