:Product: 20030104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Regions 243 (S19W47)
and 244 (S23E40) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the
period.  The largest was a C4.7/Sf from Region 244 that occurred at
03/2200 UTC.  This region has quadrupled in white-light areal spot
coverage during the past 24 hours.  Regions 243 and 242 (S08E33)
have also shown significant spot growth and both region's have
developed a gamma magnetic structure since yesterday.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A favorably
positioned coronal hole was responsible for the elevated conditions.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 143
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01