:Product: 20030106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 244 (S23E14)
produced the largest optically correlated event of the period, a
C2.7/Sf flare occurring at 06/0943 UTC.  A weak gamma magnetic
configuration remains intact although a loss of penumbral coverage
was noted during the period.  Region 242 (S08E03) decreased in areal
spot coverage and appears to have lost the gamma portion of it's
magnetic field today.  Regions 246 (N08E10) and 247 (S17E73) were
newly assigned this period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 162
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  165/170/175
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01