:Product: 20030107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 244 (S23W01)
produced an M1/1f event at 07/0750 UTC.  Region 242 (S06W09) has
shown significant growth and is now at 340 millionths of penumbral
coverage with 36 spots.  Four new regions were numbered today as
Region's 248 (S11W41), 249 (S16E18), 250 (S27E79), and 251 (S14E81).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region's 242 and 244 have potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.  Active conditions
are possible on 10 January due to the effects from a recurrent
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 163
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  165/170/175
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  002/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  008/010-010/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01