:Product: 20030108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 251 (S14E70)
produced an M4/0f event at 07/2333 UTC.  This region is currently a
Dki beta gamma group with 11 spots.  Regions 242 (S08W22) and 244
(S22W16) produced several low to mid-level C-class events.  Region
242 continues to grow slightly in area and sunspot count and also
contains a beta gamma magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Several regions on the disk have the potential for
producing an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the next three days.
Isolated active conditions are possible on 10 January due to
expected coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 174
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  180/185/190
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  010/010-010/015-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01