:Product: 20030109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 251 (S13E58)
produced an M1/1n event at 09/0537 UTC.  Region 242 (S08W34) and 251
both continue to retain their beta gamma magnetic configuration.
Another region of interest is Region 247 (S17E34) which has shown
significant growth in area and spot count.  It is currently at 340
millionths of white light coverage with 36 spots.  A new region was
numbered today as Region 252 (S04E61).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 242, 247, and 251 are all capable of producing
an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on 10 January as a result of coronal hole activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 183
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  010/015-008/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01