:Product: 20030110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Only C-class events were
observed through the period.  Region 242 (S08W48) has shown a
decrease in area and sunspots but retains its beta gamma magnetic
configuration.  Region 247 (S15E20) has maintained its area and spot
count and the magnetic configuration of the region became a beta
gamma configuration.  Region 251 (S13E44) has an area of 340
millionths of white light with 12 spots and a beta configuration.
Two new regions were numbered today as Region 253 (N11W36) and 254
(S15E72).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Isolated M-class events are possible from Region 242,
247, and 251.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 185
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  190/195/200
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  002/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01