:Product: 20030111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 242 (S07W61) produced
several low C-class flares this period. Some new development was
noted in this moderately complex region. More spots have rotated
into view near newly numbered Region 254 (S16E62). Limb proximity
hinders a more thorough analysis, but there may be two groups there.
Small subfaint flares and minor C-class activity was also noted in
Regions 244 (S22W56), 247 (S17E07), and 251 (S14E32).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate models. Regions 242, 247, 251, and 254 all have
potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak high speed
coronal hole stream produced unsettled conditions early in the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 189
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  190/195/190
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01