:Product: 20030112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C6
X-ray flare at 12/1425Z was the most energetic event of the day.
Region 242 (S07W75) was the most active region on the disk,
producing frequent plage fluctuations and occasional low C-class
flares as it approaches the west limb. Minor C-class flares were
also observed in Regions 244 (S22W71) and 247 (S16W07). It became
more evident this period that Region 251 (S14E24) contained two
distinct bipoles; consequently, this region was separated with new
Region number 255 (S13E13) assigned to the large westernmost spot.
It also became clear that the trailing spots in Region 254 (S16E44)
make up a distinct bipole and were numbered as Region 256 (S17E55).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare,
primarily from Region 242.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 173
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan  170/165/160
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  005/008-005/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01