:Product: 20030113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity continued at low levels. A C4/Sf flare
and associated CME was observed near the SW limb at 13/1615Z. The
flare began in Region 242 (S07W87) with sympathetic flaring observed
soon after in Region 244 (S22W84). Region 242 is also the confirmed
source of yesterday's C6 event at 12/1425Z. A prominence erupted off
the east limb near N14 at around 1400Z. No significant changes were
noted in the remaining regions. New Region 257 (N16E23) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 172
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  165/160/160
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  004/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  005/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01