:Product: 20030115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Activity was limited to only
one low C-class event during the last 24 hours.  A new region was
numbered today as Region 260 (N14E77).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 150
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01