:Product: 20030116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  An optically uncorrelated
long duration C2 event was observed at 16/1218 UTC.  Available image
data does not reflect an exact location for the event at this time.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 145
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01