:Product: 20030117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. A small, four degree
filament near S03W04 disappeared sometime between 16/2338 UTC and
17/1452 UTC. Region 259 (N09E26) showed moderate growth but could
only muster a B-class subflare. The remainder of the solar disk was
quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Real-time
solar wind data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing at about
1200 UTC on 17 January.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 142
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan  135/135/125
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  010/012-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05