:Product: 20030118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 259 (N10E12) produced
today's only C-class flare, a C1 at 17/2334 UTC. The remainder of
the interval was marked by a very little activity. All of the
sunspot groups currently on the disk are quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. There was
one active period from 1200-1500 UTC. There does appear to be some
low level wave activity in the solar wind data (Bz is showing
fluctuations from -10 nT to +10 nT with a period slightly longer
than one hour). This may be related to coronal hole effects from the
southern polar extension whose leading edge is at about W40.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 137
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  135/125/125
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05