:Product: 20030119RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Jan 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Activity during the interval was limited to low level B-class events. Although there are a number of spotted regions on the solar disk they were quiescent and magnetically remain simply structured. Regions 261 (N26W47), 262 (S05W45), and 263 (S13W11) were newly assigned today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active conditions commenced with an increase in the solar wind speed to approximately 600 km/sec, believed to be associated with coronal hole effects from the southern polar extension whose leading edge is at about W53. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through day one of the forecast period. The geoeffective coronal hole effects should subside by day two returning the field to predominantly unsettled conditions thereafter. III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jan 130 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 161 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 012/012-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/20/20 Minor storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01