:Product: 20030121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Newly
assigned Region 269 (S09E76) produced the largest flare during the
period, an M1.9 x-ray event with associated loops occurred at
21/1526 UTC (no optical flare reported due to source center being
just beyond the east limb).  Based on NASA/LASCO imagery, this event
produced a CME and it is doubtful that it will become geoeffective.
Unable to determine how mature this region is at the time of this
writing due to it's proximity to the east limb.  Region 260 (N14W00)
produced several C-class events throughout the interval and became
slightly more magnetically complex during the past 24 hours.  A C8.1
flare (correlated using SOHO/EIT imagery) occurred at 21/0228 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock
velocity of 700 km/sec.  A C4.1/Sf event occurred at 21/0557 UTC
that had an associated Type II radio sweep (shock velocity estimated
at 700 km/sec) and a Tenflare.  A 36 degree disappearing solar
filament was observed at the beginning of the period that produced a
CME which does not appear to be earth-directed.  Region 268 (N12E23)
was also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  There is a chance of further M-class flare activity
from region 269 pending further analysis as it rotates onto the
visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A lingering
southern coronal hole extension high speed stream is believed to be
responsible for the elevated conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels for day one of the
forecast period.  By day two a transequatorial recurrent high speed
stream coronal hole should become geoeffective producing active to
minor storm conditions with isolated major storm periods possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 134
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  135/140/135
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 160
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  010/015-020/020-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor storm           05/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           10/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/15/15