:Product: 20030123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  The largest
event was an M2.5/1n flare at 23/1243 UTC from Region 266 (S22E13).
Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep measuring 578
km/s.  A second M-class flare, an M1.0,  from Region 266 occurred at
23/0448 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (476 km/s).  In
the last 24 hours, Region 266 has shown increased growth and
complexity in the leader spots.  The spot group is now 140
millionths in size with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Region
263 (S11W68) has also exhibited growth in area coverage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 263, 266 and 267 have the potential
to produce and isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  The onset
of coronal hole effects resulted in minor storm conditions early in
the period.  NASA/ACE instruments indicate an increase in solar wind
speed with peak values near 700 km/s.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was slightly southward early in the
period but has since been, on average, neutral.  2 MeV electron flux
at geo-synchronous orbit exceeded event threshold today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Continued high
speed stream effects have the potential for isolated minor storming
on day one of the forecast period.  Day two and day three are
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 136
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  135/130/125
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 160
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  020/020-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/05