:Product: 20030124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 266
(S19E31) produced an M1.9/1n flare at 24/0327 UTC with an associated
Type II (600 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep.  LASCO imagery
indicates a CME which was not Earth directed.  Region 266 continues
to grow in area size and spot count.  Region 268 (N14W17) shows
signs of polarity mixing and has developed a beta delta magnetic
configuration.  No activity was observed from this region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 263, 266, and 268 have the potential
for M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The effects
from a geo-effective coronal hole continued today and produced an
isolated active condition early in the period.  Solar wind velocity
increased to near 800 km/s around 24/1400 UTC.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit exceeded event threshold
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of
isolated active conditions.  The elevated solar wind velocity has
the potential of producing active periods on day one.  Day two and
three are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 130
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/01