:Product: 20030126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 268 (N15W42)
produced a C2.6 flare at 26/1040 UTC.  Region 268 has shown some
decay in area coverage.  Region 266 (S22W26) has grown in area
coverage and maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Some
weak polarity mixing was evident near the intermediate spots of
Region 266.  Three new regions were numbered today:  Region 270
(S04W36), Region 271 (S06W21), and Region 272 (S05E26).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
The majority of activity is expected to come from Region 266 and
Region 268.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Elevated solar
wind speed near 700 km/s combined with a Bz near negative 5 nT
resulted in active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Diminishing effects
from the coronal hole are expected to produce only unsettled
conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 125
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  125/125/130
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  019/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  015/015-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01