:Product: 20030127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No significant events
occurred in the past 24 hours. One new active region, 273 (N06W18),
was born on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds
dropped to more normal levels near 450 km/s. Energetic electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit attained high values during the
interval.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 121
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 158
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  010/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  010/010-010/008-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05