:Product: 20030128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray event, associated
with a filament disappearance near S19W19, occurred at 27/2219 UTC.
This was the only C-class event on an otherwise quiet day. Little of
significance developed in any of the nine spotted regions. New
region 274 (S06E71) rotated into view as a mature "H-type" spot.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Episodes of substorming
occurred in local nighttime sectors.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 126
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  130/135/140
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 158
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  010/008-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05