:Product: 20030129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Just isolated small C-class
activity occurred, as the disk regions were either stable or
decaying. One new region emerged, 275 (S11W08).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. One period of active
conditions was observed in the past 24 hours. The GOES greater than
2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 124
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb  130/135/140
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 157
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  010/012-010/012-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05