:Product: 20030130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The day's most dramatic
event was the disappearance of a large n-s oriented filament from
the north-central disk at approximately 1000 UTC. This event was
seen as a CME further out in the corona, taking on the appearance of
a partial halo. This ejecta  has an earthward component, and is
expected to pass on February 2. Otherwise, little of significance
occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
very low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly active levels for the past 24
hours. The solar wind radial speed rose to over 500 km/s during the
day, presumably originating from a coronal hole in the western solar
hemisphere. This feature was present last rotation, but did not
affect the magnetosphere to this degree.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to vary generally from unsettled to active levels. The
current high speed stream is likely to fuel another day of active
conditions, calming on February 1. On February 2, effects of the CME
seen near midday today are expected, bringing another episode of
active conditions, with a good chance of episodes of minor storm.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 121
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  125/125/130
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 157
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  015/020-010/010-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/50
Minor storm           15/10/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05