:Product: 20030201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
All of today's flare activity was dominated by new Region 276
(S14E76), which produced an M1 at 0905 UTC, a C9/Sf at 1954 UTC, as
well as numerous additional C-class subflares. Observations of the
group so far indicate a relatively small (190 millionths) D-type
sunspot group. An erupting prominence was observed at 31/2200 UTC on
the Northwest limb and was associated with a type II sweep (shock
velocity 500  km/s) and a CME seen by LASCO. The remainder of the
regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 276 is expected to be the main driver of
activity, and has a fair chance for producing an additional M-class
event over the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Quiet conditions prevailed for most of the day, but
an increase to unsettled to active began at 1500 UTC. A marked
increase in solar wind velocity and total magnetic field strength
was observed beginning at 1300 UTC, but a predominantly positive
value for Bz suppressed activity until 1900 UTC, when Bz turned
weakly southwards. The interpretation of the enhanced solar wind
flow is not obvious, but seems most consistent with the passage of
transient flow due to the halo CME that occurred on 30 January. The
great than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past
24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours with a chance for
some isolated minor storm periods. Conditions should subside to
unsettled to active by day two, and return to mostly unsettled
levels by the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 126
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  130/135/140
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 156
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  025/025-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           40/30/10
Major-severe storm    20/10/05