:Product: 20030202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 276 (S14E66) produced
numerous C-flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was
a C2/Sf at 0334 UTC. The region appears to be an E-type sunspot
group with an area of about 240 millionths. Region 274 (S06E05)
showed some growth during the past 24 hours, and displayed
occasional brightenings but did not produce any flare level
activity. The remaining solar active regions were quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 276 sometime during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels with a
period of major storm levels at high latitudes from 1200-1500 UTC.
The enhanced solar wind flow which was reported yesterday continued
during the past 24 hours, with speeds in the 500 to 700 km/s range
and total magnetic field around 10 to 12 nT. Occasional periods of
southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field were
associated with times of enhanced geomagnetic activity.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active during the next 24 hours,
but there will probably be some periods of minor storm levels as the
current disturbance persists partway into the first day. A decrease
to mostly unsettled is expected for the second day. An increase to
unsettled to active is anticipated on the third day in response to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 127
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb  130/135/140
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 155
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  028/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  015/030-010/015-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/30
Minor storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/35
Minor storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/05/10