:Product: 20030203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
276 (S14E53) produced today's only C-class flare, a C1 at 0456 UTC.
Region 276 is currently the largest region on the disk with an area
of 290 millionths, and shows frequent brightenings. Region 274
(S05W09) showed occasional fluctuations along an east-west
inversion line, but was unable to produce a flare event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event from Region 276 sometime during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continuation of
yesterday's enhanced flow, but with a slow return of speed and total
magnetic field intensity to nominal values. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, with a chance for some
isolated active periods. An increase to unsettled to active is
anticipated for the second and third days due to the favorable
position of a solar coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 133
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  135/140/145
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 155
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  029/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  010/015-012/020-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10