:Product: 20030205RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Feb 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A single C-class flare of C2.1 occurred at 05/2037 UTC which was optically uncorrelated. Regions 276 (S13E27), 277 (S20E54), and 278 (N19E65) continue to show activity with several occurrences of B-class flaring. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a moderate chance of C-class flaring, and a slight chance of isolated M-class flaring from regions 276, 277, and 278. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continued high-speed stream associated with a coronal hole structure. The greater than 2MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have been at high levels for most of the last 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly unsettled through tomorrow, with isolated active periods throughout. These conditions should remain for the next 24-48 hours due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Feb 140 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 014/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/015-010/010-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05