:Product: 20030206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low to moderate levels.  An M1.2
at 06/0349 UTC from Region 278 (N18E64) was the only M-class
activity.  There were several C-class flares, with a maximum of C3.4
at 06/0214 UTC from Region 277 (S17E55).  Regions 276 (S15E22), 277, and
278 continue to show activity.  Regions 280 (S08E29) and 281
(S14E73) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with isolated M-class flare activity from Regions 276,
277, and 278 possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
period of active levels during the past 24 hours.  Solar wind
observation shows a continued high speed stream associated with a
coronal hole.  The greater than 2MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit have been at mostly high levels for the last 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  For the forecast period, the
geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled
with isolated periods of active levels due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    55/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 150
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 153
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  008/010-005/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05