:Product: 20030207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The only significant
activity was a C1.0 long-duration event from Region 274 (S06W63) at
07/1628 UTC.  Regions 276 (S13E00) and 278 (N18E40) acquired a gamma
magnetic structure during the period.  Region 277 continues to be
active.  Regions 282 (N12E35) and 283 (N01E52) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to  low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels.
High latitudes experienced an isolated active period from 07/1200
to 07/1500 UTC.  Solar wind observation continued to show a high
speed stream associated with a subsiding coronal hole.  The greater
than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to subside to and remain at mostly quiet  with isolated
periods of unsettled levels due to the departure of the coronal
hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    45/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 157
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  160/165/170
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 153
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  008/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  006/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05