:Product: 20030208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare from newly
numbered Region 285 (S10E75) was the highlight of the period. Just a
single sunspot visible so far in this new region, but limb proximity
is hindering a thorough analysis. Regions 274 (S05W76), 276
(S13W14,) and 278 (N18E26), the largest regions on the visible disk,
exhibited occasional plage fluctuations, but all are in a decay
phase with relatively simple magnetic configurations. New Region 284
(N12W14) was also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Several regions on the visible disk have potential to produce an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period between 08/1200 - 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 139
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 152
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01