:Product: 20030209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity dropped to very low levels this period.
Minor B-class subflares from Regions 276 (S12W26) and 280 (S07W13)
were the only notable activity observed. No significant changes were
observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 286 (S11W17)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods. Solar wind conditions were at near nominal levels,
but periods of weak southward IMF Bz yielded the occasional active
periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit remain considerably enhanced, reaching high levels again this
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods likely.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 141
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 141
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/012-008/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01