:Product: 20030210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 277 (S19W07) produced
the only C-class event of the period, a C1 flare at 10/0230Z. No
significant activity or changes were observed in the remaining
active regions. Several small, mostly dormant spot groups with
simple magnetic configurations populate the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Very isolated low C-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with active
periods at all latitudes between 10/0300 - 0900Z. A slightly
elevated solar wind velocity and southward turning in the
interplanetary magnetic field account for the most disturbed
periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods possible during local nighttime hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 136
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  008/012-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01