:Product: 20030211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A long duration C1 flare and
CME occurred at 10/2124Z. SXI imagery confirmed that the likely
source of this activity was just behind the west limb, probably old
Region 274 (S05, L=225). Region 280 (S06W42) produced a C2 flare at
11/1743Z. No other significant activity or changes were observed in
the remaining small and magnetically simple regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a single active
period at higher latitudes between 11/0000 - 0300Z. Solar
wind conditions, slightly elevated in recent days, have declined to
normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 135
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  005/008-005/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01