:Product: 20030212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels.  The most
significant activity during the period was a C8.7/1f that occurred
at 12/0151Z from Region 280 (S06W55).  A Type II radio sweep was
associated with this event that had an estimated shock velocity of
632 km/s.  LASCO imagery depicted a narrow CME and further analysis
indicates there is little chance of it becoming geoeffective.
Region 282 (N10W32) contributed to the day's activity with lesser B
and C-class flare activity.  Few changes were observed in the
remaining small and magnetically simple regions.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A single
isolated active period was observed at higher latitudes between
12/1500 to 1800Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Day three may experience
isolated active periods due to an anticipated favorably positioned
transequatorial coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 132
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 150
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  006/012-006/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05