:Product: 20030213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 282 (N10W45)
produced two low level C-class flares today, the largest was a C2.3
flare (location correlated using SXI imagery) that occurred at
12/2112Z.  There was very little change seen in white-light coverage
or magnetic complexity during the interval, region remains a simple
beta group.  Region 280 (S06W68) produced a B8.4/Sf flare at
13/0129Z and remains a very simple beta magnetic complex. A filament
eruption in the southeastern quadrant of the disk (began at
approximately 12/1330Z), seen in SOHO/EIT and SXI imagery, produced
a narrow CME (LASCO imagery) that doesn't appear as though it will
become geoeffective.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Day two may experience
isolated active to minor storm conditions as the leading edge of the
recurrent favorably positioned coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
Day three should be at predominantly unsettled to active levels with
minor storm conditions possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 131
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 149
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  008/012-010/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10