:Product: 20030214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels due to an
impulsive M1.2/Sf flare that occurred at 14/0918Z from Region 284
(N12W95) which was spotless upon exiting the disk.  Several lesser
C-class flares also occurred from this region throughout the period.
Region 282 (N10W58) has shown some growth in white-light spot
coverage and magnetic complexity during the interval, although it
produced only minor flare activity.  Regions 276 (S14W90) and 280
(S04W81) were responsible for the remainder of the minor flare
activity seen today.  New Region 287 (N12W50) was newly numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Early in the
period the solar wind speed began a gradual increase to a current
500 km/s rise, this, along with frequent periods of southward Bz
allowed for the active conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.  Minor
storm conditions are possible, especially at high latitudes,
beginning on day one due to a large recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 131
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  130/125/125
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 149
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  012/015-012/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/15