:Product: 20030215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels.  The largest
flare during the period was a long duration C4.5 event from Region
276 (S14 L-160) that occurred at 15/0810Z.  LASCO/C-2 imagery (first
seen at 15/0930Z) depicted a resulting CME that may have a weak
Earth-directed component.  Another CME was observed by LASCO earlier
in the period (first seen at 14/2206Z) that appears to have been the
result of a filament eruption in the northeastern quadrant of the
solar disk (centered at approximately N45E30).  This CME may also be
Earth-directed.  There was further CME activity seen in LASCO
imagery which appears to have been from back-sided source regions.
With exception to the aforementioned, there were only a few minor B
and Cl-class flares observed from the active solar regions during
the interval.  New Region 288 (N12E72) was newly assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active
levels.  An isolated period of quiet conditions were seen at
mid-latitudes between 14/2100 and 2400Z.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.  Minor
storm conditions are possible throughout the period due to the
effects of a large recurrent coronal hole.  Days two and three may
experience further enhancements due to the CME activity seen today
(IA)
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    15/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 124
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 148
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  012/020-015/020-018/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/45
Minor storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           30/30/40
Major-severe storm    15/15/25