:Product: 20030216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event
was a C1.1 flare on the west limb at 16/0325 UTC.  The most likely
source of this flare was Region 276 (S14, L=160) as determined by
NOAA/SXI imagery.  Region 288 (N11E59) has rotated further onto the
visible disk revealing a DSO spot group with a beta magnetic
configuration.  The plage of Region 288 exhibited nearly constant
surging.  Region 282 (N11E82) produced plage fluctuations and has
shown some decrease in area coverage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 282 and 288 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Coronal hole
effects continue with solar wind gradually increasing to near 650
km/s and Bz continuing to be, on average, slightly southward.  Major
storming conditions were observed at higher latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Peak activity is expected
on day two of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 119
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 147
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  015/020-018/030-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/40
Minor storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    15/20/15