:Product: 20030218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  New Region 289
(N11W52) produced a B9.8 flare at 18/0841 UTC.  The most significant
event on the visible disk was a 47 degree disappearing solar
filament that lifted off at 18/0125 UTC and was centered at N34W58.
Associated with the DSF was a CME off the NW limb which does not
appear to have an Earth directed component.  Region 288 (N12E32) has
remained relatively stable.  Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 289 (N11W52) and Region 290 (N17E46).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 288 and 289 have C-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.  A
transient passage was observed at the NASA/ACE spacecraft late on 17
February.  The transient resulted in an increase in solar wind speed
to over 700 km/s and combined with fluctuating southward Bz was the
source of minor storm conditions measured at the Boulder
magnetometer.  At about 18/0400 UTC, the solar wind became very
structured and was marked by a northward turning Bz and a gradual
decline in solar wind speed to current levels near 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels.  Coronal hole
effects are expected to continue after the transient has passed.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 110
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 146
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  015/020-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10