:Product: 20030219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 290 (N18E30)
produced a C1.8/Sf at 19/1437 UTC.  This region has shown growth in
area coverage, and has formed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration in
the leader spots.  Region 289 (N09W66) has shown rapid growth in the
last 24 hours, but has maintained a beta magnetic configuration.
Activity from Region 289 consisted of bright surging along the
southwest portion of the region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance of isolated M-class activity from
Regions 289 and 290.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
transient effects that began yesterday, and produced a structured
solar wind, appear to be ending.  At 19/1400 UTC, the steady decline
in solar wind velocity reached a minimum near 500 km/s.  Solar wind
velocity has since increased to 560 km/s.  Bz show signs of
returning to the fluctuating signature of a high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions.  An
equatorial coronal hole has entered a geo-effective position, and is
expected to produce high speed stream effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 116
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  115/110/110
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 146
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  015/015-012/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05