:Product: 20030220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class events
occurred during the day. Region 290 (N17E18) grew in both white
light and H-alpha as it produced occasional subflares. Little else
of significance occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The solar wind
is currently hovering near 700 km/s, emanating from a coronal hole
in the western hemisphere.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next 24 hours.
Conditions should calm to strictly unsettled levels by the end of
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 118
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  015/020-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05